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CRC PUBLICATIONS |
Thin Plate Smoothing Spline Interpolation of Parameters of the AR(1) Annual Rainfall Model
Penny Hancock,
Michael Hutchinson
Publication Type:
Working Document
This is a publication of the current CRC for Catchment Hydrology
CRC Program:
Climate Variability
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Publication Keywords:
N/A
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Abstract / Summary:
Thin Plate Smoothing Spline Interpolation of Parameters of the AR(1) Annual Rainfall Model Across The Australian Continent
Introduction
A first order autoregressive, or AR(1), model was found by Srikanthan and McMahon [20] to be appropriate for simulating annual rainfall amounts at a given location. The objective of this project was to develop thin plate smoothing surfaces that spatially interpolate the parameters of the AR(1) model across the Australian continent. The AR(1) parameters with which this study is concerned include the mean, the standard deviation, the skewness coefficient and the lag one autocorrelation coefficient. Initially, surfaces were fitted to the BMRC high quality data set, consisting of 363 stations known to have high quality rainfall record. This preliminary analysis gave insights into the performance of thin plate smoothing spline models for sparse, noisy data. Statistics such as the generalised cross validation (GCV), the signal, and standard error estimates, along with testing using withheld data, were used to assess the accuracy of the spline models, and the ability of the spline surfaces to represent to processes measured by the data. It was concluded from this preliminary analysis that more data were required to generate appropriate surfaces for the AR(1) model. Further analysis was therefore performed on a larger data set, consisting of 6334 stations. The thin plate smoothing spline techniques involved in this study, and the results of their application to the AR(1) parameters, are discussed in the following sections.
This working document is available for purchase from the Centre Office or can be downloaded below. Please contact Virginia Verrelli at email: crcch@eng.monash.edu.au
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Centre Office:
CRC for Catchment Hydrology
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