CURRENT RESEARCH PROGRAMS
Program 5: Climate Variability
Program Leader: Dr Francis Chiew,
The University of Melbourne.
 Program
Projects
 Click
here for the current list of Projects for this Program
(2003-2006)
Click
here for completed Projects and their outcomes for this
Program (1999-2002)
Program
Overview
Detailed Information about current projects in
this program is available here
High climate variability in Australia gives
rise to extreme fluctuations in streamflow. The costs
of the resulting floods and droughts are massive; large
savings can be made if hydrologic risk is quantified
and included in the management plans of enterprises
affected by climate. This risk can be assessed, and
hence managed, if information from past records is used
to infer flow probabilities in the future. There are
still benefits to be had from research and development
in that area. An exciting recent development is in the
area of climate forecasts, raising the prospect of very
significant reductions in the economic impact of hydrologic
uncertainties. [This Program is very strongly linked
to the Sustainable Water
Allocation Program, and to several others.]
Goals
- An improved ability to quantify climatic variability
- A reduction in hydrologic risk for a wide range
of water-related issues (flood magnitude, drought
severity, water releases from reservoirs, environmental
flows, etc.), due to application of climate forecasts.
Activities
- Develop a climate-linked space-time rainfall model
(spatial variability of rainfall is the largest source
of error in hydrologic prediction)
- Develop a methodology to generate climatic data
sequences for any point in Australia
- Coupling of the space-time and climate-generation
models
- Linking of new climate forecast capability (hours,
days, and months ahead) with hydrologic prediction
models and with water-supply system simulation models
- Involvement in the Global Energy and Water Cycle
Experiment GEWEX (a component of the World Climate
Research Program), with the Murray–Darling Basin
as our focus catchment. The coupling of land and atmosphere
models is a key element of this international program.
Outcomes
- A methodology to produce a national data base of
stochastic climate variables for input to hydrologic
and water resource systems models
- Quantification of the large uncertainty associated
with spatial variability of rainfall and, as climate
forecasting evolves, the reduction of that uncertainty
- On adoption, the tools for managers to reduce hydrologic
risk.
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